NFL Vegas Pick: NY Giants Clash With Dominant New England Patriots
Sunday, November 06, 2011
by Aengus Moorehead
Analysis:
When the New York Giants and New England Patriots take the field Sunday at Gillette Stadium in one of the marquee matchups of this week's NFL schedule, the game will serve as an opportunity for one quarterback to back up a headline-grabbing statement and one team to gain retribution for a memorable loss it's waited four years to avenge.
Though this Week 9 showdown certainly carries plenty of significance for the two participants, both of whom currently sit at the top of their respective divisions, the stakes still won't nearly be as high as the last time the Giants and Patriots squared off in a meaningful contest. That took place at Arizona's University of Phoenix Stadium in February of 2008, when New York spoiled New England's attempt at an unprecedented 19-0 season by rallying for a thrilling 17-14 victory in Super Bowl XLII.
The Patriots' chance at revenge still isn't the primary storyline of this key clash, however. Instead, most viewers will be focused on the two quarterbacks that will be leading their offenses on Sunday, thanks to some comments made by Giants signal-caller Eli Manning during the preseason that drew a flurry of attention and debate.
Manning created a small controversy by stating in a radio interview over the summer he considered himself in the same class as New England counterpart Tom Brady, a player who's garnered six Pro Bowl citations, three Super Bowl titles and two NFL Most Valuable Player Awards during his glorious career.
Though New York's triggerman doesn't possess that amount of accolades, he was able to get the better of Brady in their most recent head-to-head encounter. Manning helped the Giants pull off the upset in Super Bowl XLII by engineering a long touchdown drive late in the fourth quarter, highlighted by an unforgettable third-down play in which he eluded a heavy rush and connected with David Tyree for an improbable 32-yard completion, and was named the game's MVP.
Manning has actually compared favorably with Brady through the first eight weeks of this season. The former No. 1 overall draft pick has produced a career-best 102.1 passer rating during New York's 5-2 start, which trails only the Patriots' star and Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers for tops in the league in that category.
While that individual battle has brought some additional intrigue to this already compelling tilt, Manning said his goal this week won't be to prove he belongs in the league's upper echelon of quarterbacks.
Likewise, the Patriots' goal this week won't be getting payback for that stinging Super Bowl defeat. New England is presently engaged in a three-team fight for AFC East supremacy, with the defending division champions tied with surprising Buffalo for the top spot, and returns home off its worst outing of the season after being stymied by Pittsburgh in a 25-17 loss last Sunday.
New England's powerful offense was held to 213 total yards by the Steelers, less than half of its season average coming into the game.
Coming back to Gillette Stadium could help the Pats get back on track. New England owns a 20-game regular-season winning streak at its home venue, and hasn't lost there in its last 31 non-playoff tests in which Brady has started.
The Giants have opened up a two-game advantage in the NFC East by winning their last two games, including this past week's 20-17 triumph over stumbling Miami in which Manning threw for 349 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
Time & Venue:
- 4:15 PM ET, Sunday, November 6, 2011. Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
Last Week's results:
- NY Giants (-10) beats visiting Miami Dolphins 20-17.
- New England Patriots (-3) loses to host Pittsburgh Steelers 25-17.
Last week's ATS:
- Favourite NY Giants (5-2) wins but does not cover
- Favourite New England Patriots (5-2) loses outright.
NFL Football Odds: Patriots -9, O/U 51.5.
Next up:
- NY Giants at San Francisco, Sunday, November 13
- New England at NY Jets, Sunday, November 13
The Steelers may have revealed the blueprint for keeping New England's high-powered offense at bay last week, as Pittsburgh held the ball for over 39 minutes by mixing Ben Roethlisberger's efficient passing with an effective running game. Dallas utilized a similar approach two weeks prior in its near-upset of the Patriots, with the Cowboys also owning a sizeable edge in time of possession. New England may actually benefit from employing that philosophy as well when factoring in New York's struggles in stopping the run and its own deficiencies on the defensive side.
Brady has been sacked 10 times over New England's past three games and the offense experienced a noticeable drop-off against both the Cowboys and Steelers because both teams were able to continually harass the reigning league MVP.
New York begins a brutal stretch of six straight games against some of the league’s best teams with its game at Foxborough on Sunday. New York leads the NFL with 26 sacks and needs to pressure Patriots quarterback Tom Brady. Pittsburgh made Brady uncomfortable by blitzing him throughout the game. The Giants have several key injuries. RB Ahmad Bradshaw is listed as doubtful with a cracked bone in his foot, DE Osi Umenyiora has a shoulder injury and WR Hakeem Nicks is battling a hamstring problem. New York is ranked 30th in rushing so a healthy Bradshaw is crucial.
Although he has won an amazing 31 straight starts at home, even the immortal Brady looked human last week. Brady failed to throw for 200 yards and is merely ranked second in the league in passing after a sizzling start that led many to believe he’d break every passing mark for the season. Brady has thrown 18 touchdowns and eight interceptions in seven games. RB Kevin Faulk returned to the lineup last week and played well. He could be a key if the Giants can indeed pressure Brady. WR Wes Welker was missing from Wednesday’s practice with a neck injury.
The Giants certainly have the pass rushers in place to make an impact as well. It's also important for the Patriots to create pressure on Manning, as New York isn't much of a threat running the ball and the durable field general is capable of shredding New England's shaky secondary if he isn't under duress.
This could very well be a game that's decided by which team has the ball last. Manning has been marvelous in the final period this season, having thrown for six touchdowns and earning an NFL-leading 119.3 passer rating, while Brady has orchestrated 24 fourth-quarter comebacks over his decorated career and is considered one of the all-time greats with the game on the line.
New England was 18-0 heading into the Super Bowl loss to the Giants, but Eli Manning engineered an 83-yard drive capped by a touchdown pass with 35 seconds left to pace the Giants to victory following the 2007 season.
Manning has only six turnovers this season. He threw 25 interceptions in 2010.
New England was outgained by Pittsburgh 427-213 last week, easily its worst performance of the season.
New England is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing NY Giants
New England is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home
New England is 18-4 SU in its last 22 games
NY Giants are 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Giants last 7 games
NY Giants are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games
This Super Bowl rematch may turn out more like the 2007 regular-season meeting between these teams, an all-out shootout in which Brady and Manning combined for over 600 yards and six touchdowns, as opposed to the defensively-oriented nail-biter that took place in Arizona.
Both quarterbacks will have their moments, as will a Giants defense that has the potential to disrupt New England's aerial assault with its pressure. The offenses should have their say in the end, however. If that's indeed the case, the Patriots' better balance on that side of the ball and sustained success at home could be the determining factors in a hard-fought contest that won't have a shortage of thrills.
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NFL Football Pick: Take points and Giants.
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aaron rodgers - ahmad bradshaw - ben roethlisbergers - eli manning - gillette stadium - hakeem nicks - kevin faulk - miami dolphins - new england patriots - new york giants
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